Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is one of the regions where climate change is expected to push the most people into poverty (39.7 million) if no concrete climate and development action takes place by 2050 ( Jafino et al. This is even truer for fragile environments, 2 which may be more vulnerable to humanitarian crisis and instability. These changes in the weather patterns (i.e., climate change 1) are presenting immense challenges and its effects are particularly severe for the populations of poor countries. Global temperatures have increased significantly over the past-half century and extreme weather events such as cold and heat waves, droughts, floods, and storms have intensified, now dominating the disaster landscape in the 21 st century. These findings tend to support the hypothesis behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the energy consumption growth literature, which postulates that as income increases, emissions increase pari passu until a threshold level of income where emissions start to decline. Panel quantile regression models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity, corroborate that the effects of higher temperature on income per capita growth are negative while the impact of income per capita growth on carbon emissions growth is heterogeneous, indicating that higher income per capita growth could help reduce carbon emissions growth for high-emitter countries. A panel fixed effects model (1980 to 2019) found that the effect of a 1◦C rise in temperature decreases income per capita growth in fragile states in SSA by 1.8 percentage points. ![]() Against this setup, climate change could add to risks. Fragility is linked to structural weaknesses, government failure, and lack of institutional basic functions. Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenges to respond to the effects of climate shocks and rising temperatures.
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